2022年度の活動報告
2023年3月26日 武蔵大学国際シンポジューム『日本と世界の長期経済停滞は新しい大恐慌の始まりか』 “Musashi Online International Symposium on Secular Stagnation as a New Great Depression: Japan and Beyond”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EB1MNxzA0eE
【プログラム】
●開会のあいさつ （横川信治、Radhika Desai）
●報告
Robert Gordon (Northwestern University)
“Innovation and Headwinds as Sources of U.S. Secular Stagnation.”
Minqi Li (University of Utah)
“Secular Stagnation and Fiscal Crisis in US and China.”
Hiroshi Nishi (Hannan University)
“Sources of Productivity Growth: Is Japan Still Suffering from Baumol's Disease.”
Thomas Palley (Former Senior Economic Adviser to the AFL-CIO)
“Keynes’ Denial of Conflict: the Original Sin and Why Keynesians Struggle to Explain Stagnation."
David Kotz (University of Massachusetts Amherst)
“A Social Structure of Accumulation Theory of Secular Stagnation.”
●パネルディスカッション
James Kenneth Galbraith (University of Texas at Austin)
Myles Carroll (Ochanomizu University)
Alan Freeman (University of Manitoba, Canada)
●閉会のあいさつ （横川信治、Radhika Desai）
【概要】
第2次世界大戦後1980年代までの日本経済は先進国の中で最も成長率が高くかつ平等的であった。1990年のバブル崩壊後30年にわたって、日本は先進国の中で最も成長率が低くまた所得格差の拡大も目立った。この失われた30年は、1930年代のアメリカ経済の停滞（ハンセンの長期停滞論）になぞられて特殊日本経済の「長期経済停滞」として多くの注目を集めた。2000年代に入ると日本だけではなく、ヨーロッパ、続いてアメリカも長期の経済停滞に陥った。経済停滞は日本の特殊現象ではなく世界的な現象として、主流派経済学を含んで「長期経済停滞論」の議論が再燃している。このシンポジュームでは現在の長期停滞を理解するためには、資本主義の長期的歴史視野と地政学的視角が必要であることを明らかにする。
The symposiums revisit the phenomenon of Japanese capitalism considering the fate of the North Atlantic and developing economies and place it in a longer historical political and geopolitical economy of capitalism from a variety of political and disciplinary perspectives including, Marxian, Keynesian, Rgulationists, and World System theories.
The presentations deal with three topics that go to the heart of secular stagnation.
(1) Japanese capitalism was once an admired model of miraculous growth with a relatively egalitarian distribution of income, fell into secular stagnation in the early 1990s. The phenomenon has since fascinated observers, provoked debates, provided policy advocates elsewhere with much grist for their policy mills, yielding a range of policy proposals, some of them mutually contradictory, and, most importantly, burdened an entire population, and particularly its young. Japan’s secular stagnation has raised new questions about policy difficulties on a range of fronts -- dramatically lowered growth rate, deteriorating labor conditions, rising class and gender inequality, a profound and many-faceted crisis of social reproduction and a deepening fiscal crisis of the state -- all of which have important international ramifications.
(2) Interest in and the importance of Japan’s secular stagnation grew rapidly after 2008 as many have sought to understand the economic malaise of the North Atlantic by analogy and comparison with all or parts of the Japanese condition, particularly its monetary policy.
(3) Are the term, secular stagnation, and Japan’s experience, relevant to understanding deteriorating condition of capitalism in its homelands today? Are we facing a serious crisis like the Great Depression in the 1930s?
Robert Gordon examined “six headwinds” (inequality, education, demographics, fiscal debt, social behavior, and climate change) that exacerbate long-term economic stagnation (Gordon 2012, 2014). However, at the symposium he focused on the slowdown in technological progress following the end of the second and third industrial revolutions as a cause of secular stagnation.
Minqi Li calculates the long-term ratio of government debt to GDP, predicts a fiscal crisis in the US and China, and shows that the decline of American hegemony would lead to long-term stagnation and that China would not be the next hegemony.
Hiroshi Nishi examines the sources of aggregate labor productivity dynamics in Japan (1995–2018) and investigates the extent to which Baumol’s growth disease has affected Japanese economic performance.
Thomas Palley criticizes mainstream Keynesians who argue that a lack of demand leads to sluggish production and employment growth. Palley argues that Keynes’s General Theory (1936) was a huge step forward relative to classical economics. Still, it was also a step backward in denying capitalism’s conflictual nature.
David Kotz further develops Hansen’s state-market relation. Kotz distinguishes two types of Social Structure of Accumulation: regulated and liberal SSAs. He shows that the structural crisis phase of a liberal SSA (1929–1937 and 2007–present) gives rise to secular stagnation.
【プログラム】
●開会のあいさつ （横川信治、Radhika Desai）
●報告
Robert Gordon (Northwestern University)
“Innovation and Headwinds as Sources of U.S. Secular Stagnation.”
Minqi Li (University of Utah)
“Secular Stagnation and Fiscal Crisis in US and China.”
Hiroshi Nishi (Hannan University)
“Sources of Productivity Growth: Is Japan Still Suffering from Baumol's Disease.”
Thomas Palley (Former Senior Economic Adviser to the AFL-CIO)
“Keynes’ Denial of Conflict: the Original Sin and Why Keynesians Struggle to Explain Stagnation."
David Kotz (University of Massachusetts Amherst)
“A Social Structure of Accumulation Theory of Secular Stagnation.”
●パネルディスカッション
James Kenneth Galbraith (University of Texas at Austin)
Myles Carroll (Ochanomizu University)
Alan Freeman (University of Manitoba, Canada)
●閉会のあいさつ （横川信治、Radhika Desai）
【概要】
第2次世界大戦後1980年代までの日本経済は先進国の中で最も成長率が高くかつ平等的であった。1990年のバブル崩壊後30年にわたって、日本は先進国の中で最も成長率が低くまた所得格差の拡大も目立った。この失われた30年は、1930年代のアメリカ経済の停滞（ハンセンの長期停滞論）になぞられて特殊日本経済の「長期経済停滞」として多くの注目を集めた。2000年代に入ると日本だけではなく、ヨーロッパ、続いてアメリカも長期の経済停滞に陥った。経済停滞は日本の特殊現象ではなく世界的な現象として、主流派経済学を含んで「長期経済停滞論」の議論が再燃している。このシンポジュームでは現在の長期停滞を理解するためには、資本主義の長期的歴史視野と地政学的視角が必要であることを明らかにする。
The symposiums revisit the phenomenon of Japanese capitalism considering the fate of the North Atlantic and developing economies and place it in a longer historical political and geopolitical economy of capitalism from a variety of political and disciplinary perspectives including, Marxian, Keynesian, Rgulationists, and World System theories.
The presentations deal with three topics that go to the heart of secular stagnation.
(1) Japanese capitalism was once an admired model of miraculous growth with a relatively egalitarian distribution of income, fell into secular stagnation in the early 1990s. The phenomenon has since fascinated observers, provoked debates, provided policy advocates elsewhere with much grist for their policy mills, yielding a range of policy proposals, some of them mutually contradictory, and, most importantly, burdened an entire population, and particularly its young. Japan’s secular stagnation has raised new questions about policy difficulties on a range of fronts -- dramatically lowered growth rate, deteriorating labor conditions, rising class and gender inequality, a profound and many-faceted crisis of social reproduction and a deepening fiscal crisis of the state -- all of which have important international ramifications.
(2) Interest in and the importance of Japan’s secular stagnation grew rapidly after 2008 as many have sought to understand the economic malaise of the North Atlantic by analogy and comparison with all or parts of the Japanese condition, particularly its monetary policy.
(3) Are the term, secular stagnation, and Japan’s experience, relevant to understanding deteriorating condition of capitalism in its homelands today? Are we facing a serious crisis like the Great Depression in the 1930s?
Robert Gordon examined “six headwinds” (inequality, education, demographics, fiscal debt, social behavior, and climate change) that exacerbate long-term economic stagnation (Gordon 2012, 2014). However, at the symposium he focused on the slowdown in technological progress following the end of the second and third industrial revolutions as a cause of secular stagnation.
Minqi Li calculates the long-term ratio of government debt to GDP, predicts a fiscal crisis in the US and China, and shows that the decline of American hegemony would lead to long-term stagnation and that China would not be the next hegemony.
Hiroshi Nishi examines the sources of aggregate labor productivity dynamics in Japan (1995–2018) and investigates the extent to which Baumol’s growth disease has affected Japanese economic performance.
Thomas Palley criticizes mainstream Keynesians who argue that a lack of demand leads to sluggish production and employment growth. Palley argues that Keynes’s General Theory (1936) was a huge step forward relative to classical economics. Still, it was also a step backward in denying capitalism’s conflictual nature.
David Kotz further develops Hansen’s state-market relation. Kotz distinguishes two types of Social Structure of Accumulation: regulated and liberal SSAs. He shows that the structural crisis phase of a liberal SSA (1929–1937 and 2007–present) gives rise to secular stagnation.